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The Detroit Lions are closing in on their first playoff berth since the 2016 season, and perhaps their first division title since 1993, when the NFC North was known as the NFC Central.
Those were the goals laid out this season. Make the playoffs, win the division and see what happens from there. The Lions — 9-3, in first place in the NFC North, and third in the NFC — have positioned themselves to achieve those goals, with just five games left to play.
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As the season winds down, this feels like the perfect time to discuss the Lions’ playoff picture and what’s at stake in December.
NFC North race
The Lions have a three-game lead in the NFC North, tied with the San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins for the largest division lead at this point in the season. The New York Times’ playoff simulator gives the Lions a 96 percent chance to win the NFC North, based on 192,320 simulations. The Lions are in an enviable spot, but it’s up to them to close things out and take care of business.
Regardless of what happens elsewhere, Detroit controls its fate in the North. The Lions can clinch the division with three wins in the final five games. They don’t need anyone’s help to get it done. Best believe that’ll be the message down the stretch.
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Lions seeding picture
The Philadelphia Eagles remain atop the NFC standings, even after a loss to the second-place 49ers on Sunday. That game closed the gap, and it’s possible the 49ers could make a push for the top spot before it’s all said and done. The 49ers now own the tiebreaker, which could loom large.
The Lions, meanwhile, are No. 3 in the conference. While technically tied for second, the 49ers hold the tiebreaker over Detroit because of their intraconference record. The Lions are 6-2 vs. the NFC, while the 49ers (7-1) and Eagles (6-1) have performed better. Is it possible for the Lions to catch both teams and earn a first-round bye?
Mathematically? Yes. Likely? No.
Per the New York Times playoff simulator, the Lions have a 7 percent chance at a first-round bye. Compare that to the Eagles (46 percent) and 49ers (43 percent) and you get an idea of how difficult it could be. The 49ers have remaining games against the Seahawks, Cardinals, Ravens, Commanders and Rams. The Eagles still have to face the Cowboys, Seahawks, Giants, Cardinals and the Giants again to close the regular season. There’s a chance. Just not a strong one.
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Additionally, the New York Times model gives the Lions a 19 percent chance at the No. 2 seed (better, but still an uphill battle) and 67 percent chance to be the No. 3 seed. That certainly feels like the sweet spot.
The Lions would face former Detroit tight end T.J. Hockenson (left) and the Vikings in the playoffs if the season ended today. (Jeffrey Becker / USA Today)Potential playoff opponents
Much of this depends on where the Lions themselves finish in the NFC standings. But we can sort through some of the teams they could face in the first round, as a No. 2 or 3 seed.
Minnesota Vikings (6-6): If the season ended today, the Lions would host the Vikings. These teams will meet twice in the final three games of the season, which will tell us quite a bit about playoff seeding. But the Vikings have not looked good of late — losing back-to-back games against the Broncos and Bears — and other teams could jump them if they don’t get back on track.
Green Bay Packers (6-6): The Packers are currently the No. 7 seed, with impressive wins over the Lions and Chiefs in consecutive weeks. They’ve won four of their last five games overall and would face the 49ers if the season ended today. However, the Packers have a rather light schedule to close. They’ll finish with the Giants, Buccaneers, Panthers, Vikings and Bears — all winnable games. If a division title is out of reach, it’s possible the Packers could move up to the No. 6 seed by the end of the season if they keep playing like this. That could set up a Packers-Lions playoff game at Ford Field.
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Los Angeles Rams (6-6): Well, well, well, look what we have here. This is the dream matchup for sports media narratives. Matthew Stafford vs. his former team. Jared Goff vs. Sean McVay. Brad Holmes vs. Les Snead. The L.A. Rams vs. the, uh, Detroit Rams? Remember that? We’ve come a long way.
The Rams have won three in a row to resurrect their playoff hopes, and are now the No. 8 team in a seven-team field. They’ll close with the Ravens, Commanders, Saints, Giants and 49ers. They’re still very much in the picture, even if they have work to do.
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Seattle Seahawks (6-6): The Seahawks are in a free fall. They’ve lost four of their last five games to fall back to No. 9 in the NFC. Their next two games are against the two best teams in the conference — the 49ers and Eagles. It’s not difficult to imagine them losing both of those and falling to 6-8, which would put them in a hole that would be hard to dig out of.
The NFC South (minus the Panthers): We’re including the three NFC South teams still in the hunt (sorry, Panthers) because of all the moving parts here. One of these teams has to win the NFC South, and whoever wins it will not be a first-round matchup for the Lions. The Falcons are currently the No. 4 seed in the NFC and would play the No. 5 Cowboys if the season ended today. The Falcons trail the Lions by three games for the No. 3 seed. It would take a lot to catch Detroit.
The Bucs (5-7) and Saints (5-7) are still in the picture, too, despite losing records. Either team could climb the standings and push for a division title or wild-card spot with strong finishes. New Orleans has remaining games against the Panthers, Giants, Rams, Bucs and Falcons. The Bucs will play the Falcons, Packers, Jaguars, Saints and Panthers.
(Top photo: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)
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